Welcome Baby Six Billion!

October 11, 1999
Volume 1/ Number 20

Dear Friend and Colleague:

Population Research Institute celebrates the birth of the World's Six Billionth Person. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and other population control groups have used this happy occasion to perversely launch a worldwide media campaign to generate more support for population control programs. Despite their efforts, PRI has made an impact in the media, with articles appearing in USA Today, the Washington Times and coverage on CNN and C-SPAN, as well as numerous other media outlets. The following is an Op-ed which will appear in newspapers throughout the world. Your help is requested in forwarding this piece to your local media. Thank you for joining in our celebration of the world's six billionth person.

Steven W. Mosher

Welcome Baby Six Billion!

A few seconds after midnight a baby emerged from the womb of its mother, drew its first breath, and announced its arrival into the world with a tiny cry. This is Baby Six Billion. Today, 12 October 1999, is its birthday.

This day—the day that our planet becomes home to six billion human beings—marks an important milestone. But is it a milestone on humanity's upward path that we should celebrate, or a warning of impending catastrophe over which we should despair?

For the population controllers the answer is clear: They would have preferred that Baby Six Billion had never been born.

We should, however, celebrate the birth of Baby Six Billion. This little child has been born into a world that is more prosperous than our forebears could have imagined.

As our numbers have climbed so has our well-being. In 1800, when there were only 1 billion people, per capita income was a mere $100. By 1900, as the population was closing in on 2 billion, it reached $500. Currently, with 6 billion people, per capita income has soared to $5,000. In 2100, when the population will be between 7 and 8 billion (and falling), it will be $30,000 in current dollars.

Driving the so-called "population explosion" has been a real explosion in health and longevity. As late as the 19th century, four out of every 10 children died before reaching age five. Today under-five mortality is under 7 percent. Two hundred years ago, human life expectancy was under 30 years. Today it is over 65 years.

As people live longer, naturally there are more of us around at any given time.

By nearly every measure of well-being, from infant mortality and life expectancy to educational level and caloric intake, life in Africa, Asia, and Latin America has been getting dramatically better. According to the World Bank, the average income in the developing world has doubled since 1960.

Enough grain is produced for every person on earth to consume 3,500 calories daily. There is no need for anyone to starve in the midst of this plenty.

Population has doubled since 1960, but world food and resource production has never been higher. Economies continue to expand, productivity is up, and pollution is declining. Life spans are lengthening, poverty is down, and political freedom is growing. The human race has never been so well off.

In fact, underpopulation, not overpopulation, is the threat facing the world. By the beginning of 2000, over seventy countries representing over half the world's population will have below replacement fertility—defined as 2.1 children per woman.

The populations of the developed nations today are static or declining. The UN predicts that, by 2050, Russia's population will have declined by 25 million people, Japan's by 21 million, Italy's by 16 million, and Germany's and Spain's by 9 million each. Europe and Japan will lose half their population by 2100.

Countries with below replacement rate fertility will eventually die out. It's just a question of time.

Even in the developing world family size has shrunk, from around 5 children per woman in 1900 to less than 3 today. And the decline continues.

According to the UN's "low variant projection"—historically the most accurate—the population of the world will peak at 7 plus billion in 2040 or so, and then begin to decline.

High fertility rates are becoming rare. The UN numbers for 1998 show only 10 countries with population increase rates at or above 3.0 percent.

By 2050, persons aged 65 and above will be almost twice as numerous as children 15 years and younger. The economic consequences of population aging will be closing schools, declining stock markets, and moribund economies.

Ignoring these facts, the population controllers continue to spread their myth of overpopulation.

The UNFPA and other population control organizations are loath to report the truth about falling fertility rates worldwide, since they raise funds by frightening people with the specter of overpopulation. They tell us that too many babies are being born to poor people in developing countries. This is tantamount to saying that only the wealthy should be allowed to have children, and is a new form of global racism.

We should stop funding population control programs, and instead turn our attention to real problems.

Let us also join together in celebrating the birth of Baby Six Billion. He or she is a sign of our future, our hope and our prosperity.

People are our greatest resource. Extraordinarily gifted people have helped to enrich civilization and lengthen life spans. But the fact is, everyone, rich or poor, is a unique creation with something priceless to offer to the rest of us.

Baby Six Billion, boy or girl, red or yellow, black or white, is not a liability, but an asset. Not a curse, but a blessing. For all of us.

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